Globaleconomyacceleratedslightly in2023

SFCMarketsandFinance:Wouldyouliketogoovertheperformanceofglobaleconomyin2023?Diditmeetyourexpectations?

BrianCoulton:Whatwesawin2023wasthattheglobaleconomyactuallyacceleratedslightly,sowesawworldeconomicgrowthpickuptoabout2.9%from2.7%in2022.Thatwasasurprise.Atthebeginningoftheyear,weexpectedtheglobalgrowthtoslowquitesignificantlylastyear,andthereasonwasthatweanticipatedthattheriseinfederalreserveinterestrateswouldhavequiteabigandrapidimpactontheU.S.economicgrowthwhichsloweddown.Wewereexpectingtoseearecessionlastyear,initiallyintheU.S.thatdidn'thappen.Instead,theU.S.economyactuallyaccelerated,grewfasterin2023thanin2022.

WealsosawquiteastrongrecoveryingrowthinChina,andthatwasprimarilydrivenbytheeasingofpandemicrestrictions,ortheabolitionofpandemicrestrictionsatthestartoftheyear,whichallowedconsumerspendingonvariousserviceswhichhadbeenconstrainedbytherestrictionstonormalize.Nothinglikeaconsumerboomgoingon,certainlynot.Butthatnormalizationledtoapick-upingrowthinChina.Andthosetwofactors,morethanoutweighedasharpslowdownintheEurozone.Andthatslightslowdownwassomethingweanticipated,anditwasreallyaboutthefalloutfromtheenergyandthegascrisisthathappenedfromthemiddleof2022.Sothosearethevariousdriversofglobalgrowth.Abetteryearthanweandmostpeopleexpectedlastyear.

SFCMarketsandFinance:YoumentionedthenormalizationofconsumptioninChinaandincreasedgrowthintheU.S..Couldyouexplainthekeydriversbehindthesepositivetrends?

BrianCoulton:SoontheChina's story,whatwesawwiththepandemicrestrictionsthatweresortoftightenedagainin2022,thatreallyweighedheavilyonconsumption.Itwassomethingthatwasconstrainingwhatwecallcontact-intensiveconsumption. Sothe consumptionmeansthatyouhavetobeclosetootherpeople.Sogoingtothecinema,goingtoarestaurant,orgoingtoabusyshoppingmall,allthosethingswereconstrainedheavily bythepandemic.

Whenthoserestrictionswereremoved,thereweresomeinitialreluctancebecausepeoplewereobviouslywithhealthconcerns.Theremovalofrestrictionsledtoabounceinconsumptiononthosecontact-intensiveservices.Itwasexactlythesamepatternthatwesawin2021and2022intheWesterneconomieswhentheyfinallyremovedthepandemicrestrictions.ThatwaswhatdrovethenormalizationinChina.AsIsay,intheU.S.itwasreallytheeconomyprovedalotmoreresilientinthefaceofmonetarytighteningthanwe'danticipated. 

ThreefactorsforU.S.economybeingresilient

SFCMarketsandFinance:WhydidtheU.S.economyshowsurprisingresiliencein2023?Andhowsustainableisthisresilience? 

BrianCoulton:Verygoodquestion.Andthisissomethingthatwegotwrong,andalmosttheentiremarketgotwrong,tobehonest.Therewasawidespreadconsensusatthestartof2023thattheU.S.economysloweddownverysharplyandprobablygoingintoatechnicalrecession(which)willbeamildone.

Thatdidn'tprovetobethecase.Ithinktwoorthreefactorstoemphasize. One is thattherewasquiteaverysignificanteasingoffiscalpolicylastyearintheU.S.. Sowesawgovernmentspendingongoodsandservicesthroughthethird quarterof2023rises byalmost5%inrealterms,yearonyear.That'sa hugegrowthingovernmentspending,alotofatthestateandlocalgovernmentlevel, andhealthandeducation,butthatdefinitelyboostedGDPquitesignificantly.

Wealsohadlowertaxpaymentsfromthehouseholdsectorthatwasalsoboostinghouseholddisposableincome.Andthere'sameasureoftheunderlyingfiscalstatsthatputtogetherbytheIMF,whichshowsaverysubstantialeasingofabout2%ofGDPinfiscalpolicies.Thatwasn'texpectedtogetatthestartoftheyear.Sothatwasoneofthemainreasonsforthesurprise.

Secondly,Ithinkwe'reallalittlebitsurprisedbythewillingnessoftheU.S.householdsectortocontinuetodrawdownsaving.Sothroughthecourseofthepandemic,in2020and2021,therewasamassivesurgeinwhatwecallexcesssaving.Sothesavingratiojumpedverystrongly,andthatallowedhouseholdstobuildup.Andthereasonthathappenedwasbecausetherewerelotsofgovernmenttransfers,spendingwasconstrainedatthetime,incomegrewrapidlybecauseofthetransfers,butspendingwasconstrained,soU.S. householdsandhouseholdsinEurope,andelsewhere,builtupastrongbufferofdepositsandsavingsthroughthecourseofthosetwoyears.Now,thishasbeenuniquetotheU.S..Thehouseholdsectorwaspreparedtousethosesavingstodrawthemdownandtospendmore.Sotheratioofconsumerspendingtoincomeactuallyroseaboveitslongonaverage,from2022.Andthatwasastrongsupportforgrowth.Again,somethingwedidn'tanticipate.Wedidn'tanticipatethatitwouldgoonforsolong.

ThethirdfactoristhatthetransmissionofmonetarypolicytighteningtotheU.S.economywasn'taspowerfulasalotofmodelsbasedonhistorywhatweresuggesting.Andsowesawaveryslowpassthroughfromhigherpolicyinterestratestointerestratesactuallyfacedbyhouseholdsontheirmortgages,becausealotofthosearefixedforaverylongterm,thatdidn’tfeedthroughverystrongly.AndtheprivatesectorinaverystrongcashpositionbeforetheFedstartedtotightenrates,inparticularlywiththeU.S.corporatesectorissittingonverylargestocksofliquidfinancialassets.Andthosefinancialassets,whichweremainlyparkedinbankdepositsormoneymarketfunds,startedearningaverygoodinterestratebecausetheFedraisedrates,andthatwaspassedthroughtoshort-termdepositratesandmoneymarketfundrates,andsothatcushionedtheblowoftighterinterestrates.Soallofthosefactors,Ithink,contributedtothesurprisingresilienceoftheU.S.lastyear.

SFCMarketsandFinance:Fitchpredictsasharpdeclineinglobalgrowthto2.1%in2024.Whatarethemainfactorscontributingtothisforecast? 

BrianCoulton:Wedothinktheglobaleconomyisgoingtoslowdown.Twokeydriversofthat.One,thepickupingrowthinChinathatwesawlastyearwasmoreofakindofone-offtypeofadjustment.Sothissortof(adjustment),wewerecallingitanormalizationofconsumption,aspreviouslyconstrainedconsumptiononserviceswasallowedtogobacktosomethingmuchmoreinlinewithhistoricalnorms.Butthat'snotsomethingthatcreatesongoinggrowth.Sowedon'tseetheunderlyingstrengthenedconsumerspendingonasortofsequentialmonthbasisthat'snotanywherenearstrong.Sothatwasone-offboostthatwe'renotgoingtoseethisyear.Andthat'spartlywhywe'reexpectingChinesegrowthtoselecttoslowdown.

ThesecondfactoriswhatIsaidaboutmonetarypolicytransmissionintheU.S.notbeingaspowerfulorrapidasweexpected.Sofar,westillseealaggedimpactfromthisyear.AndwhatwepointtothefactthatbankcreditgrowthtothecorporatesectorandthehouseholdsectorintheU.S.hasslowedverysharply,andthatwethinkisgoingtofeedintolowergrowthovertime.Soit'sthelaggedimpactofthemonetarypolicythatwe'veseentodayintheU.S.andtheone-offboostergrowthinChinalastyearfadingoutofthenumbers. 

Eurozonewillfacedownsiderisks

SFCMarketsandFinance:Whichregionwillfaceheightenedrisks?

BrianCoulton:Intermsofhowourforecastshavebeenchangingrecently,wherewe'vehadpositiverevisionstoourU.S.(economy)forecast.Andthere'sprobablystillalittlebitanupsiderisktotheU.S.outlookinthenearterm.Eventhoughwedoexpecttoslowdown,someofthehighfrequencynumbersarestilllookingquitestrongonthelabormarket,retailsales.SoIwouldn'tpointtotheU.S.atthemomentasbeingthekeydownsiderisk.

TheEurozonewaswherewecutourforecastsinDecember.AndweareseeingsomesignsofrealstagnationintheGermanyeconomy.TheGermaneconomyhasn'texpandedrelativetoitspre-pandemiclevel,theQ42019level.Germany'seconomyshrankinthe4thquarterandisnowsmaller,notasbigasitwasbackinQ42019.Nearlyeveryotheradvancedeconomyhasexceededthatpre-pandemiclevel,followingstrongrecoveriesin2021and2022.SoIthinktherearedownsiderisksintheEurozone. 

SFCMarketsandFinance:DoyouthinktheU.S.economywillavoidarecessionin2024?Whatarethemainchallenges?

BrianCoulton:Wedoseeaslowdownstillinourforecast,quiteasignificantstate,andwe'vegotgrowthcomingdownin1.25%to1.5% thisyear,fromwhatwasprobablyaround2.5%lastyear.Butwedon'tseearecession.

Wethinkthatthestrengthofprivatesectorbalancesheet,privatesectorliquidityisgoingtocontinuetodampentheimpactofthatmonetarytighteningthatwe'vehadoverthelasttwoorthreeyears.Don'texpectfiscalpolicytobetightandsharpeither.Whenweputallthosethingsintothemix,wecertainlydoseeaslowdown.Butwedon'tseearecessionatthispoint.Andthat'scomeabitofchangeofviewfromus.UpuntilourSeptember2023globaleconomicoutlookforecasts,wewereanticipatingaU.S.recession,butwedon'tthinkthat'stherightcallanymore. 

2024isapivotalyearformonetarypolicy 

SFCMarketsandFinance:Youmentionedcentralbanks,includingtheFedandtheECB,arenervousaboutmakingaprematuredeclarationof“victory”.Howdoyouassesstheirpoliciesinresponsetoeconomicconditions?

BrianCoulton:Ithinktherehasbeenasignificantchangeinthelast3or4monthsinhowthecentralbanksofviewingdevelopments.Andwhat'shappenedisthecoreinflationhascomedownquitesignificantlyacrosstheU.S.,theEurozoneandtheU.K..Now,that'spartlybecauseofalltheglobalsupplychainpressuresthatwereabigproblemin2021and2022.Theyeasedquitesignificantlyinthemiddleoflastyear,andwesortoflackedbenefitfromthatinthe2ndhalfoflastyearongoodsinflation,andwe'vealsoseensomedeclinesinservicesinflation.AndIthinkasthat'shappened,thecentralbankshavebecomealotmoreconfidentthatthey'venowraisedratestoalevelthattheythinkiswhattheycalled sufficientlyrestrictive,policyistightenoughnow,theythinkinordertobringinflationbacktotargetonasustainablebasisoverthenext2to3years,getbacktotheirinflationtargets.Sothat'squiteanimportantchange.

Butwhat'sgonewiththatchangehasbeenaverystrongsignalfromcentralbanksthatthey'renotinanyrushtostartcuttingrates.AndsoIthinkwhatwe'regoingtobelookingatisseveralmonthsfromnow,in2024,wherethecentralbanksare,debatingtheoutlookandstartingtotalkaboutinterestratecuts.Butwedon'tthinkthey'regonnagetthereforafewmonths.Sowedoseeinterestratescomingdownacrosstheworldeconomy.Infact,wecover20economiesinourglobaleconomicoutlook,andthecentralbanksin19ofthoseeconomiesareexpectedtocutratesthisyear.It'sonlytheBankofJapanthatweseeratesgoingup.Sowedothinkthattherewillbeawidespreadeasingofmonetarypolicy.Soitisdefinitelyapivotalyearformonetarypolicyinourview. Butwedon'tthinkratesarecomingdownquicklyorrapidly.

SFCMarketsandFinance:WhenwilltheFedandECBstartcuttingrates?

BrianCoulton:SowethinktheFedisgoingtobeprobablyonholduntilJuneorJulyofthisyear.So,that'squiteadifferentviewtowhat'spricedintofinancialmarkets,butthat'sourviewthatitwilltakesometimeforthemtogetcomfortablewithcuttingrates.Remember,they'vejustbeenthroughaperiodofaninflationshockthatnobodyontheFOMCbelievedcouldeverhappenagain.Imean,therewasaverystrongviewbeforethepandemicthatinflationhadbeensolvedasaproblem.Sotohaveinflationhit10%andstayveryhighforthreeyears,itwasamassiveshocktopolicymakers.

SoIthink,havingbeenthroughthisperiod,andwithservicesinflationstillquitehighandquitesticky,andwithlabormarketsstilltight,stillpressureonwageinflation,whichisnotcomingdownfastenough,andit'sfartoohigh,Ithinkthey'regonnawaitforsometime,keepratesrestrictiveforanotherfewmonths.Sowedon'tseetheFEDcuttinguntilJuneorJuly.

WethinktheECBmaybealittlebitearlier.AndthereasonforthatisthecoreinflationimprovementsintheEurozonehavebeenevenmoreimpressivethanintheU.S..SocoreinflationhascomedownquitefastintheEurozone.SoweseetheECBgoingmaybealittlebitearlier,butbroadly,wethinkQ2fortheFEDandtheECB.BankofEngland,becausecoreinflationisthatmuchhigher,wethinkthey'llprobablybewaitingabitlonger,soprobablymorelikeQ3fortheBankofEngland.

SFCMarketsandFinance:Isitpossiblethattheinflationwillriseagainaftercuttingratesthisyear? 

BrianCoulton:It'scertainlynotimpossible,yet,wedothinkthat'sariskbeingkindofignoredbythemarketsatthemoment.We'renotseeingservicesinflationcomedownthatfastatall.We'reseeingintheU.S.andacoupleofothercountries,verystronggrowthinhousingrents.ThatgoesintotheCPI.That'snotslowingdownmuchatall.Andonsomemeasures,theU.S.housingmarketisispickingupagain.Wageinflationishigh.

Andnowwe'vegotsomedevelopmentshappeningintheMiddleEast,withtheRedSeatradedisruptions.That’sgonnaprobablyslowdownthepaceatwhichcoregoodspricesfall,ormayevenseesomeincreasesinthenextfewmonths,inthewakeofthosedisruptions.Andofcourse,wedon'tknowit'sgoingtohappentocommoditypriceseither.Soit'spossiblewiththisconflictintheMiddleEast,it'spossiblethatwecouldseeallpricesriseagain.So,youknow,therearelotsoffactors.Inflationforecastingisnoteasy.

Andthere'slotsoffactorsbecausecertainlyIwouldsayit's,it'sprobablymorelikelythatwejustseeunderlyinginflationsortofprovealotmorestickythanthemarketsareexpecting.Ithinkthat'sprobablyabiggerrisk.Butthereisalsocertainlyontheheadlineinflationnumbers,thatinflationdoespickupagain.Itcertainlycan'tberuledout.

RedSeaCrisiswillbringmorechallengestoEuropeaneconomy

SFCMarketsandFinance:IwanttotalkmoreabouttheRedSeaCrisis.Fromyourperspective,howwilltheRedSeaCrisisaffectglobalinflationandsupplychain？

BrianCoulton:It'sbeenquiteinteresting.Ifyoulookatanumberofsortofhighfrequencyindicators,likethecostofmovingacontainerthroughfromChinatoEurope,forinstance,thathasgoneupquitesharplysincetheconflicthasescalated.Andwe'vehadtheseissuesintheRedSea,nothingonthescaleofwhatwe'veseenin2021.Andthereisabigdifferencewith2021whenthosesupplychainissueswerearealproblem.Backthen,wehadaverystrongsurgeinglobalconsumergoodsdemand,andthiswasrelatedtoamassivestimulusintheU.S.andelsewhere,butledtoabigincreaseinspendingonITequipment,furniture,bicycles,younameit,thingsthatgetdeliveredtoyourhouseinabox.Therewasamassivesurge,atotallyunprecedentedincrease,thatwasreallyprobablyamoreimportantdriveroftheinflation,tobehonest,thanthesupplychainitself.

Thesupplychainwasjuststrugglingtokeepupwiththishugejumpingdemand.We'renotseeingthatthistimeround.Sogoodsdemandisnotfalling.It'skindofgrowing,butit'smuchmoresteady.There'snothinglikethissortof30%increaseinU.S.consumergoodsdemandthatwesawrelativetopre-pandemiclevels.Wesawthathappenedin2021.Sothedemandsideoftheglobalgoodsbalanceisnowherenearasstrong,butthesedisruptionsare,youknow,theyarestartingtoshowupinanumberoftheindicatorsthatwelookat.Andwewillseethat,Ithink,inthenextfewmonths,insomeoftheCBIdata.  

SFCMarketsandFinance:WilltheRedSeaCrisisbringmorechallengestoEuropeaneconomy？

BrianCoulton:Well,totheextentthatitslowsdownthepaceatwhichtheECBcutsrates.Ithinkthatcouldbeanissue.Youknow,we'veseenaveryquickfeedthroughfromhigherECBratestolowercreditgrowthintheEurozone,andtheconstructionsectorinparticular,hasweakenedquitesharply.Andso,ifwe'relookingfortheECBtoprovidesomesupport,thesedisruptionscoulddelaythoseratecuts,definitely.Andtheweakerisworldtradepicture.Itdoeshaveaparticularlystrongimpactonthosemanufacturingandtrade-focusedeconomiesintheEurozone,whichisbasicallyGermany,Italyattheforefront.

SFCMarketsandFinance:Europefacedchallengesin2023withmildrecessionsintheeurozoneandtheUK.Willtherecessionendin2024?

BrianCoulton:Wethinkthattherewillbeanimprovement.Wedohaveapickupingrowth,from2nd,3rdquarterthisyear.Andthat'sreallydrivenbyaviewthatasinflationcomesdown,headlineinflationcomesdown,wagegrowthisgoingtobequitesticky. Andsothat'sgoingtoleadtoanimprovedrealwagegrowthpicture.Sowe'regoingtoseesomerecoveringrealwages,andwethinkthatwillhelptheconsumerinGermanyandelsewhere.Butit'snotgonnabeastrongrecovery.WedoseethatthisweaknessinworldtradeisweighingontheGermanrecovery.Andthere'sprobablystillsomelaggedimpactsfrommonetarytighteningtocomethroughaswell.

And,thosethingsaresortofdampeningwhatshouldbequiteanimportantboostfromthedeclinethatwe'veseeninglobalgasprices.Andthatwasabignegativeshockin2023.Thatthejump,themassivesurginginnaturalgaspricesinthe2ndhalffor2022,wasahugeshockthatweighedontheEurozoneeconomy,intheGermaneconomy,particularlylastyear.Butthatshockiseasedquitesharply.We'veseennaturalgas,carpricescomedown.Sothat'swhatwecallanimprovementinthetermsoftrade,andthatshouldbehelpingthings,butwethinkthat'sgoingtobedampenedbytheweaknessofworldtradeandtheweaknessinGermany,andstillsomeheadwindsfrommonetarypolicytightening.

Chineseeconomyhadagoodperformancein2023

SFCMarketsandFinance:HowaboutChina'seconomy?Whatwillbethekeydrivingforces?

BrianCoulton:OurbasecaseviewforChinaisthegrowthslowstoabout4.5%.AndasImentionedbefore,that'spartlybecauseweseetheone-offboostlastyearfading,andthat'snolongerbeaffectinggrowth.Buttobehonest,wethinkthattherisksremainonthedownsidetothatforecastnow.Sowhyareweexpectinggrowthhastostillstayfairlydecentat4.5%?Imean,wehaveseensomeofthenumbersimproverecently.BetterGDPnumbersinQ4,atleasttherealGDPnumbersweredecentat5.2%.We'veseenretailsalesgrowthpickupinthefourthquarteroflastyear,we'veseeninfrastructureinvestmentimproved,industrialproductionnumbersimproved.Andweareseeingapickupincreditgrowth.Andofcourse,we'vejusthadastepupinthepaceofpolicyeasingwiththis50basispointscutintheRRR.Sothoseareallreasonstobelievethatthegrowthshouldseethesortofstayinabroadlyintheirsortofrangethatwethinkthegovernmentwillbecomfortablewith. 

SFCMarketsandFinance:ThePeople’sBankofChinaannouncedtocutthereserverequirementratio(RRR)forallbanksby50basispoints.DoyouthinkhowthesepolicieswillaffectChina’seconomy?

BrianCoulton:Ithinkthisisawelcomeaccelerationinthepaceofpolicyeasing.Frankly,wewerequitesurprisedlastyearabouthowmeekthegovernmentwasinhispolicyresponse.We'dexpectedamoreassertivemacropolicyeasingresponsewhenwesawhowweakthenumberswere.Thenumbersweregoodinthebeginningoftheyear,thefirstquarter.Itlookedliketherewasastrongreboundgoingon,andthentheyreallyfaltered inthemiddleoftheyear.Andthepropertysectorremainedvery,veryweakthroughlastyear. 

AnditwasclearfromAugustthatthegovernmentwaskeentosupportpropertyandsupporttheeconomybuttheydidn'treallyseemtobedoingverymuch.TheRRRcutswehadwerequitesmall.Wedidn'tseemuchontheofinterestratecuts.Weonlysawaverymarginalpickupincreditgrowth,whichwedidhavesomefiscalmeasures.Wethinkthosearestartingtohelpnow.Butthese50basispointscutintheRRRisabitmoreaggressive.Thisisabitclosertowhattheyweredoingin2015whenthepropertymarketwasreallyweak.SoIthinkthatisawelcomemove.Ithinkfromthegrowthperspective,ourviewisthattheredoesneedtobemoreassertivepolicyeasing.Weneedtoseeabiggerboostincredit,andthiseasingintheRRRshouldhelp. 

SFCMarketsandFinance:DoyouexpectmorerelaxingpoliciesinChina? 

BrianCoulton:Idon'tthinkI'vegonefarenoughatthisstageforustobefullyconfidentinour4.5%forecast.Imeanthatforecastalreadyanticipatedsomefurthereasing.Ithinktherewillneedtobemorecuts,moresupportforpropertythattheyneedtostopthepropertysectorcollapsing.Frankly,thenumbersatthemomentarejustcontinuestocollapse.Now,ifthatbottomsout,withthissupporttoinfrastructureandthiswiderfiscalsupport,Ithinkwe'requitecomfortablethattheycanachievegrowthof4.5%.Butifitcarriesonfallingat20%+,thenwe'renotgoingtoget4%growth.SoIthinkwe'regoingtoneedtoseesomemorepolicyeasingtoensurethepropertysectorstabilizes.

Therearelotsofuncertaintiesinglobaleconomy 

SFCMarketsandFinance:Peoplearecalling2024thesuperelectionyear.Howwilltheseelections,especiallytheUSpresidentialelection,influencetheworld? 

BrianCoulton:Alsosomethingpeoplearegonnabewatchingveryclosely.There'slotsofdifferentaspectsofthis.Obviously,underthequestionthatwereceivealotfrominvestors,iftherewasavictoryfromPresidentTrump,whatwouldthatmeanforUSpolicy?Andhowwouldthataffecttherestoftheworld?Obviously,hisfirstterm,thereweresomesignificanttariffswereplacedonChina,whichhavenotbeenremoved.Therewerelotsofthreatsoftariffsonothercountries,includingMexico,forinstance.So,thatisoneconcernthatweseemoreprotectionistpoliciescoming. 

IthinkoneissuethatwewillbewatchingquitecloselyisonedevelopmentthatyousawunderPresidentTrump'sfirstterm,beforethepandemic,wasaverysharpslowdowninUSnetimmigration.NowtheUSlabormarketatthemomentistight,butthingskindofeasedabitonthesupplysideoftheUSlabormarketin2023becausewesawabigrecoveryinnetimmigration.Sowedidn'treallyhaveanimprovementinlaborforceparticipation,theshareofpeopleover16thatwereworkingintheeconomydidn'treallymoveupverymuch.Thatsortofratteddownafterthepandemicisnotreallyrecovered.Buttherewasanimprovementinimmigration.AndthatwasafactorthatwashelpingemploymentgrowthandhelpingGDP,andpreventingwagegrowthrisingmuchmorerapidly.Ifweweretoseeasharpslowdowninimmigration,thatcouldmeanthattheUSlabormarketconditionsaretightenedevenfurther,whichwillbeaproblemfortheFed. 

SFCMarketsandFinance:Willtheseelectionsbethebiggestuncertaintyin2024? 

BrianCoulton:Unfortunately,there'slotsofuncertaintiesthisyear, withconflictsgoingoninvariouspartsoftheworld. SoIthink therearelotsofkeyrisksofwhichthatisone.Obviously,U.S. economicpolicyishugelyimportanttotherestoftheworld.Soclearlyitwillbeverymuchinfocus.ButChina'sgrowthoutlook, theprospectsfortheEuropeaneconomy, theweaknessinGermany'seconomy, theglobalimplicationsoftheriseinterestratesintheBankofJapan, sotherearelotsofissues,lotsofuncertaintiesoutthere,whichaddsanotherlevelofcomplexity.

策划：于晓娜 

监制：施诗

责任编辑：李依农

记者：施诗杨雨莱谢鸿州

剪辑：李群 蔡于恬

拍摄：李群

设计：林军明

新媒体统筹：丁青云曾婷芳赖禧黄达迅

海外运营监制:黄燕淑

海外运营内容统筹:黄子豪

海外运营编辑：庄欢吴婉婕龙李华张伟韬

出品：南方财经全媒体集团